publications
[2025 Social Science Research (publication in process)] How routine tasks affect labor market inequalities between vocational and ter-tiary graduates over the career
How do routine tasks shape disparities in income and employment prospects between workers with vocational and tertiary educational qualifications? While existing research predominantly emphasizes skill differentials as the primary driver, this study proposes that group differences in the prevalence and returns to routine tasks contribute to existing disparities. Using decomposition methods on data from the German Socio-Economic Panel and the BiBB/BAuA Employment Survey, we examine how compositional differences in routine task performance between vocational and tertiary graduates impact differences in labor market outcomes over individuals’ careers. We find that vocationally trained workers tend to perform more routine tasks than their university-educated counterparts. This compositional difference explains part of the income gap but does not affect unemployment risk. While group-specific levels of routine task intensity remain relatively stable, the returns to these tasks diminish over the life course, contributing substantially to the widening income gap between vocational and tertiary graduates over their careers.
[2023 Sociological Science] Life-Course Differences in Occupational Mobility Between Vocationally and Generally Trained Workers in Germany
Vocational education is considered beneficial to young workers entering the labor market but disadvantageous late in their careers. Many studies assume that late-career disadvantages stem from lower levels of occupational mobility, but do not explicitly study this mechanism. This study is the first to empirically assess whether and to what extent occupational mobility differs between workers with a general education and those with vocational training and to examine how these differences develop over workers’ life courses. Using multilevel linear probability models on panel data spanning 36 years of labor market participation in Germany, we find that vocationally educated workers are less mobile, but only in the first half of their careers. In the second half, mobility rates for vocationally and generally trained workers converge. Our findings support earlier research that links vocational education to less turbulent early careers. Yet, they do not support the notion of late-career mobility disparities between workers with different types of training. Implications for research on education-based differences in career outcomes are discussed.
[Preparing for submission] Closing the gap? The impact of further training for career inequality between workers with vocational and general education
The trade-off between vocational and general education is a key issue in the debate on sustainable careers. While VET supports a smoother school-to-work transition, its job-specific skills may become obsolete over time, leading to career instability. General education promotes adaptability but offers fewer short-term benefits. Continuing vocational training (CVT) is seen as a tool to offset skill devaluation and promote career resilience. However, little is known about how different forms and durations of CVT affect career outcomes across educational backgrounds over time. Using longitudinal data from the German National Educational Panel Study (NEPS), this study investigates how CVT participation and labour market returns differ between vocationally and generally educated workers. We analyze various forms of CVT and measure returns in terms of unemployment risk, occupational mobility and leadership roles. Preliminary findings show that apprenticeship-educated workers participate less in CVT, particularly after the age of 45. For them, however, late-career CVT significantly reduces the risk of unemployment and increases the chances of upward mobility and leadership, unlike for university graduates. Notably, the combination of company-based and self-initiated CVT yields the strongest positive outcomes, while certification has a minimal impact. These findings suggest that CVT plays a crucial role in shaping long-term career stability and progression, especially for workers with apprenticeships. Promoting access to and engagement in CVT among vocational graduates could help mitigate late-career disadvantages and reduce long-term educational inequalities in the labour market.
[Preparing for submission] Understanding Differences in Employment Between Workers with Vocational and General Education over the Career
Existing studies examining the hypothesis that vocational training initially benefits but later hinders employment careers compared to general education yield mixed results. This complicates substantive conclusions about how the strengths and weaknesses of distinct educational pathways play out over the life course. This study recognizes institutional variations between countries as a crucial factor contributing to these inconsistencies. Early-career advantages and late-career penalties for vocational graduates should be more pronounced in countries where vocational education is more occupation-specific. Additionally, country-level variations in susceptibility to technological change should alter the disadvantages of workers with occupation-specific skill sets. Institutional differences have received limited attention in vocational career literature, with existing studies largely relying on cross-sectional data and assumptions about generational comparability. Existing longitudinal studies, in turn, are hardly comparable due to differences in operationalization of key concepts. To overcome these limitations, this study uses the Comparative Panel File to merge household panels from six countries—Australia, Germany, Great Britain, Korea, Russia, and Switzerland—and compile a harmonized cross-national longitudinal data set. To compensate for the limited number of countries, within-country variation over time is used to increase the variability of macro-level predictors. The study then uses multi-level regression with cross-level interactions to evaluate the impact of vocational specificity and susceptibility to technological change on employment probability trajectories for vocationally and generally trained workers. Thereby, the research aims to provide an understanding of how contextual factors may shape inequalities in career trajectories between workers with different educational backgrounds.